Copper fever

What fuels the price boom?

The importance of copper in the electrical field has been known since the late ‘800s, when Thomas Edison illuminated a square mile of Manhattan thanks to the underground laying of 24,000 meters of copper cables.

Since then, copper has become one of the most important materials of modern civilization, so much so that it has been defined as a “critical metal”.
Copper allows physical machinery to be connected, and is the basis of the functioning of artificial intelligence, transportation, infrastructure, communications, and security systems. A preponderant presence in our daily lives that has made it an object of strategic importance.

Today, there’s talk of a rush for red gold, copper, due to the growing demand stemming from three main directions: first and foremost, artificial intelligence, which, since 2022, with the advent of Chat Gpt, has gained traction, generating a progressive transformation in both work and private life worldwide. This has turned into a new, rapidly expanding vector of copper demand.

Another sector that is attracting ever-increasing amounts of copper is the energy transition and therefore the production of electric cars, which requires 2.9 times more copper than a conventional car. The growing demand from solar and wind power generation, as well as batteries used to store electricity generated from renewable sources, also stands out in this area.

The third factor with high copper absorption is defense: in the 2025 White House report, copper was ranked as the second most widely used material by the U.S. Department of Defense, essential for missiles, aircraft, submarines, armored vehicles, and ammunition systems.

Fig.1 Global copper demand by sector (2025–2040)
Million metric tons of copper (MMt Cu)

1. Includes demand for copper from construction, cooling, appliances, fossil power generation, machinery, and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. 2. It includes demand for copper from clean energy technologies, transmission and distribution (T&D), and electric vehicles.
Source: S&P Global

© S&P Global 2026

The chart developed by S&P Global depicting global copper demand as distinguished by sector is comprehensive in showing how demand for the material will surge from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes by 2040, a 50% increase that, however, faces significant supply obstacles.

Copper replenishment occurs both through extraction from mines and therefore through primary supply, and through recycling, that is, secondary supply.

In both cases, supply-limiting obstacles are being encountered: mining is facing declining ore quality, with rising costs and increasingly complex mining conditions, as well as sudden shocks such as the mine collapse in Indonesia in 2025.

Since the exploration of new mines takes on average between 15 and 20 years, given delays in permits and surface risks such as regulatory uncertainty, opposition from environmentalists, policy changes and rising costs, without significant investment the current output of existing mines will decline.

Secondary supply alone is unable to bridge the gap. The study published by S&P global predicts a potential copper deficit of 10 million tonnes by 2040 in the face of significantly higher-than-supply demand.

Taking a broader look, it’s possible to see how the record increases of recent weeks, which have pushed copper prices to $13,000 per ton, are not simply yet another commodity hike, but a reflection of a geopolitical signal.

In this regard, the aggressive tariffs announced by the Trump administration on refined metals have triggered a rush for supplies; in fact, of the 143,000 tons of Chinese copper exported in 2025, most flowed directly into the United States during the month of November (approximately 57,000 tons). A quantity that clearly does not reflect normal trade flows, but a precautionary accumulation.

With China importing 60% of the world’s copper ore, refining nearly half of global quantities, and dominating multiple critical mineral supply chains, the West faces a situation of strategic dependence on a geopolitical rival for a resource essential to energy security, national defense, and technological dominance. If oil once forged alliances and wars, copper could do the same. It is no coincidence that Trump’s return to the White House has crystallized a strategic imperative: control over critical minerals now equates to national security.

Structural growth in demand for copper cannot continue to depend on Chinese processing; a larger supply must be ensured that is both aligned, transparent, and resilient.

Considering that according to the IEA (International Energy Agency), 52% of global copper mines are located in areas of high water stress and that current ongoing projects are insufficient to meet NET ZERO targets, it could support Goldman Sachs’ forecasts that copper prices will reach $15,000 per tonne in 2035.

The choices governments make in the years ahead will determine whether copper remains a facilitator of progress or becomes a bottleneck for growth and innovation.